Yesterday morning when I first heard the announcement that BYU was considering leaving the Mountain West Conference to become Independent in football and return to the WAC in all other sports, I started celebrating. I couldn't believe that it would actually happen. Though this entire mess is football driven, the idea of USU and BYU being in the same conference for men's basketball made me giddy. Recognized by Cougar fans or not, at least on the basketball court, USU-BYU is a rivalry. Over the past decade, USU holds a slight advantage in wins, 7-5, but the teams are evenly matched and would consistently battle for the WAC championship.
Then the Mountain West struck back. Having already poached Boise State from the WAC, the MWC reached out to Fresno State and Nevada (and we now know USU) and offered them an invitation to the conference. When I first heard this, I wasn't too worried, and frankly I'm still surprised that Fresno State and Nevada jumped at the offer so quickly. . .
Here's why–
Money: Fresno State signed the $5 million buy-out deal and Nevada verbally agreed to it or something along those lines. For two schools that are operating in budget deficits, that is a lot of money to shell out.
Schedule: As part of all other BYU sports joining the WAC and the football team staying Independent, the Cougars agreed to play a series of games with each of these teams.
Television Exposure: The WAC currently has a deal with ESPN that guarantees a certain number of televised games. With the addition (more or less) of BYU, that arrangement would most likely have been expanded. And finally, the MWC is stuck with "The Mtn." network, which offers little payback, little exposure and a lot of headaches for the teams already in the conference.
WAC power: Had Fresno State and Nevada held out, it is very possible that the MWC would be on the verge of collapse, and not the WAC. With BYU leaving, TCU most certainly would have seen the writing on the wall and pushed hard to get into the now 10-member Big 12. That would leave Boise as the main team in a weaker conference than the one they just left. Ultimately, they would have decided to stay in the WAC, and the MWC would have collapsed. The WAC could've picked up the pieces, adding UNLV (rival for UNR) , New Mexico (rival for NMSU) and San Diego State. Not only would this have been a solid football conference, but it would have been a very strong basketball conference, worthy of multiple bids.
In short, had Fresno State and Nevada been patient and honored they're commitment to the WAC, the end result probably would've been similar to where the find themselves now. . . and they wouldn't have a $5 million bill that WAC comish Karl Benson is very adamant that they'll pay.
The big news tonight coming out of Logan, is that the Aggies received and invite to the MWC before Fresno State and Nevada were even contacted. USU, however, turned down the offer, believing the rest of the teams in the conference would honor the agreement to remain together and the WAC would emerge as the stronger power (as mentioned above). It's obvious from the statements made in Scott Barnes letter, that USU and BYU have been working behind the scenes for awhile to put this thing together, and it's also obvious that it is not working out how either of them envisioned.
BYU will be fine. If they choose to do nothing, they have the MWC and if the choose to go ahead with the move to independence, then they have multiple options there as well. The Aggies, though, are now backed into a corner. Their next move most likely hinges on what the Cougars decide. If the Cougs decide to leave the MWC and deposit the remainder of their programs in the WAC, there is hope for the conference. At this point, I don't know that BYU will do that though. If BYU stays in the MWC, the conference is now stronger with the additions of Boise, Fresno and Nevada. . . making the possibility of a BCS auto-bid more realistic.
Here are the Aggies best case scenarios:
1 - BYU remains in the MWC and lobbies for USU to become the 12th team in the conference. This allows the MWC to have a conference championship game, and the up-and-coming USU squad is decent addition. Certainly above MWC bottom dwellers Wyoming, New Mexico and SDSU. This also creates a solid basketball conference that would be worthy of three to four NCAA bids year-in and year-out.
2 - BYU leaves the MWC, which in turn with the departure of Utah to the Pac-10, leaves no Utah market for the MWC. In an effort to keep at least a share of the Utah/SLC market, and add a regional member, the MWC invites the Aggies to replace the Cougars.
At this point, I see option one as the more viable choice. USU worked hard to get BYU back to the WAC and smooth that transition. Now that that path has been nuked, BYU should repay the favor and pave the way for the Aggies to join the MWC. No word yet though on whether BYU will back down from its aspirations of independence. Stay tuned for what happens next!
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